As election day nears, the race has begun to close. Realclearpolitics.com has identified this campaign as one of the forty “toss-ups” in the election right now, with challenger Bob Gibbs coming up even in the race against incumbent Zach Space in recent polling.[1] Due to this, the Democratic party has begun to pour money into the Space campaign.[2]
Jobs continue to dominate as the theme of the campaign. Cantonrep.com did an article recently on the approaches of Space and Gibbs saying that Space is much more focused on infrastructure development while Gibbs is taking an approach that emphasizes cuts in government spending.[3] Gibbs recently spoke in Zanesville about the excesses of big government.[4] He has also lashed out at Space for his votes in favor of President Obama’s cap and trade policies, something that Gibbs says kills jobs in rural Ohio.[5]
These policies follow models in research that expect for incumbents to have trouble during years where the economy and the president are being criticized.[6] By tying Space’s economic policies to that of an unpopular president, Gibbs has been able to exploit the weaknesses that make incumbents fall. This has led to an endorsement from the Intelligencer, which criticized Space for killing jobs in Ohio by supporting cap-and-trade.[7]
The other big story in the campaign has been to the backlash against Space’s “Thank You” ad. News sources have criticized the ad for being, among other things, simplistic in addressing issues and overly personal.[8] Interestingly, Space was the first to start flinging mud, even though Republicans have been shown in past elections to be quicker to resort to negative campaigning.[9] This is not terribly surprising, though, since Democrats have been shown to be quick to run negative campaigns when the polls are close.[10] The anti-Chinese themes do reflect larger national themes at this point. Space is one of almost thirty Democratic candidates to begin running an anti-Chinese television advertisement in the past two weeks.[11] This could end up drumming up anti-Chinese sentiment, which would go past the already-documented negative effects that negative advertising have on public notions of political efficacy.[12]
[1] Dupree, Jaime. "The Toss Ups." Blogs about Atlanta News, Sports and More | Ajc.com, AccessAtlanta.com. Atlanta Journal-Constitution, 15 Oct. 2010. Web. 15 Oct. 2010. <http://blogs.ajc.com/jamie-dupree-washington-insider/2010/10/15/the-toss-ups/?cxntfid=blogs_jamie_dupree_washington_insider>.
[2] Eaton, Sabrina. "Democrats Pump an Extra $788,000 into Ohio Congressional Races | Cleveland.com." Cleveland OH Local News, Breaking News, Sports & Weather - Cleveland.com. Cleveland.com, 14 Oct. 2010. Web. 15 Oct. 2010. <http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2010/10/democrats_pump_another_788000.html>.
[3] "18th Congressional Candidates Focus on Jobs - Canton, OH - CantonRep.com."Cantonrep.com. 5 Oct. 2010. Web. 15 Oct. 2010. <http://www.cantonrep.com/news/x1423335487/18th-Congressional-candidates-focus-on-jobs>.
[4] Shannon, Brittany. "Bob Gibbs Talks Jobs in Zanesville | WHIZ News." Headlines | WHIZ News. Whiznews.com, 5 Oct. 2010. Web. 15 Oct. 2010. <http://www.whiznews.com/content/news/local/2010/10/05/bob-gibbs-talks-jobs-in-zanesville>.
[5] Lehmann, Evan. "In Ohio's Coal Country, Climate Policy Is a Tough Issue - NYTimes.com."The New York Times - Breaking News, World News & Multimedia. 14 Oct. 2010. Web. 15 Oct. 2010. <http://www.nytimes.com/cwire/2010/10/14/14climatewire-in-ohios-coal-country-climate-policy-is-a-to-30872.html>.
[6] Jacobson, Gary C. The Politics of Congressional Elections. 7th ed. New York: Pearson/Longman, 2009. Print.
[7] "Elect Gibbs To Congress." News, Sports, Jobs - The Intelligencer / Wheeling News-Register. 15 Oct. 2010. Web. 15 Oct. 2010. <http://www.theintelligencer.net/page/content.detail/id/547740/Elect-Gibbs-To-Congress.html?nav=511>.
[8] Isla, Jose De La. "Delaisla: Focus on the Issues, Not on Blame Games." Scrippsnews. Scripps Howard News Service, 13 Oct. 2010. Web. 15 Oct. 2010. <http://www.scrippsnews.com/node/57130>.
[9] Lau, Richard R., and Gerald M. Pomper. "Effects of Negative Campaigning on Turnout in U.S. Senate Elections, 1988-1998." Southern Political Science Association 63.3 (2001): 804-19. Print.
[10] Ibid.
[11] Chen, David W. "China Emerges as a Scapegoat in Campaign Ads." The New York Times. 9 Oct. 2010. Web. 15 Oct. 2010. <http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/10/us/politics/10outsource.html?_r=2&hp>.
[12] Ansolabehere, Stephen, Shanto Iyengar, Adam Simon, and Nicholas Valentino. "Does Attack Advertising Demobilize the Electorate?" The American Political Science Review 88.4 (1994): 829-38. Print.
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