The Final Week of Campaigning

            This final week of the campaign was highlighted by Space’s villainizing of third-party campaign contributors. Space has come out in saying that he is worried about the contributions of corporations for this election cycle and its effects on democracy.[1] Space additionally talked about third-party organizations that are running advertisements and commented on the lack of transparency associated with these organizations.[2] These tactics scream of desperation. These may be last-ditch attempts for Space to drum up some support for his policies before the election next week.

            The Democratic party is working hard to keep Space in office, too, as they sent Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack to the 18^th to talk about solar farms with Space.[3] The Democrats are trying to bolster Space’s credentials as a friend of rural life, but also as a results-oriented champion of green jobs. By bringing Space’s successes in green jobs back into the public eye, the Democrats are reinforcing the idea that Space has done good in the past, an important selling point for an incumbent.[4]

            The 18^th is now waiting in suspense as the election nears.

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[1] Genson, Loren. "Parties' Big Guns Converge on Ohio." Zanesvilletimesrecorder.com. 28 Oct. 2010. Web. 29 Oct. 2010. <http://www.zanesvilletimesrecorder.com/article/20101028/NEWS01/10280303/1002>.

[2] Eaton, Sabrina. "Ohio Congressional Candidates Focus on Getting Voters out in Battleground Districts | Cleveland.com." Cleveland OH Local News, Breaking News, Sports & Weather - Cleveland.com. 28 Oct. 2010. Web. 29 Oct. 2010. <http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2010/10/post_23.html>.

[3] Eaton, Sabrina. "Ohio Congressional Candidates Focus on Getting Voters out in Battleground Districts | Cleveland.com." Cleveland OH Local News, Breaking News, Sports & Weather - Cleveland.com. 28 Oct. 2010. Web. 29 Oct. 2010. <http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2010/10/post_23.html>.

[4] Jacobson, Gary C. The Politics of Congressional Elections. 7th ed. New York: Pearson/Longman, 2009. Print.

Coshocton Forum Uncovers Issue Differences

            On October 15^th, the three candidates for the 18^th congressional district in Ohio faced off in a forum in Coshocton with rhetoric about issues and jobs.[1] In this forum, Democratic candidate Zack Space further cemented his message of portraying himself as a moderate while Republican candidate Bob Gibbs showed himself to be a conservative advocating government withdrawal from business interests.

            As jobs have become the central issue of the campaign, the two candidates have found themselves in different camps as to how to create these jobs. In a recent interview tith the Mount Vernon News, Space championed the stimulus package and has taken credit for the jobs created in the 18^th by it. In the same article, Gibbs criticizes the stimulus and advocates government withdrawal from business.[2]

            Space has been criticized by the Americans for Prosperity for his vote for the cap-and-trade proposal in a recent advertisement.[3] The advertisement is biting in associating Space with Pelosi, a figure that the Republicans are trying to make the villain of this campaign season. The question as to whether or not the negative ads from this campaign will result in a decreased turnout has evidence on both sides in scholarly research.[4] [5]

            Space and Gibbs have less to disagree on when it comes to health care. Space voted against the health care proposal for the reason that it did not benefit seniors enough and Gibbs also came out against health care reform from a libertarian standpoint.[6] Space was able to further bolster his credentials with senior citizens with a vote on senior security.[7]

            Also of note, Gibbs supporters are running a phone advertisement that the NRA is accusing of falsely claiming the NRA endorsement.[8] An interesting study to be undertaken would be whether this ad had a measurable effect on having voters believe the candidate was NRA-endorsed.

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[1] Alaimo, Jessica. "18th District Candidates Sound off at Coshocton Forum."Zanesvilletimesrecorder.com. Zanesville Times Recorder, 15 Oct. 2010. Web. 21 Oct. 2010. <http://www.zanesvilletimesrecorder.com/article/20101015/NEWS03/10150301/1002/NEWS01/18th-District-candidates-sound-off-at-Coshocton-forum>.

[2] Reed, Alan. "Gibbs, Space, Sutton Square off for 18th District Seat / Mount Vernon News."Mountvernonnews.com. Mount Vernon News, 18 Oct. 2010. Web. 22 Oct. 2010. <http://www.mountvernonnews.com/local/10/election/gibbs-space-sutton-square-off-for-18th-district-seat>.

[3] Israel, Josh, and Aaron Mehta. "Americans for Prosperity Blasts Ohio Democrat’s Climate Change Vote." The Center for Public Integrity. 21 Oct. 2010. Web. 22 Oct. 2010. <http://www.publicintegrity.org/blog/entry/2553/>.

[4] Ansolabehere, Stephen, Shanto Iyengar, Adam Simon, and Nicholas Valentino. "Does Attack Advertising Demobilize the Electorate?" American Political Science Review 88.4 (1994): 829-38. Print.

[5] Lau, Richard R., and Gerald M. Pomper. "Effects of Negative Campaigning on Turnout in U.S. Senate Elections, 1988-1998." Southern Political Science Association 63.3 (2001): 804-19. Print.

[6] Reed, Alan. "Gibbs, Space, Sutton Square off for 18th District Seat.”

[7] "SPACE ANNOUNCES VOTE ON RELIEF FOR SENIORS." PoliticalNews.me. 17 Oct. 2010. Web. 22 Oct. 2010. <http://politicalnews.me/?id=5615&keys=Congressman-Zack-Space-SocialSecurity>.

[8] Riskind, Jonathan. "NRA Corrects 18th District Call: Space Has Its Support | Columbus Dispatch Politics." Ohio Political News & Opinion | Columbus Dispatch Politics. 20 Oct. 2010. Web. 22 Oct. 2010. <http://www.dispatchpolitics.com/live/content/local_news/stories/2010/10/20/copy/nra-corrects-18th-district-call-space-has-its-support.html?adsec=politics&sid=101>.

Job Rhetoric Heats Up

            As election day nears, the race has begun to close. Realclearpolitics.com has identified this campaign as one of the forty “toss-ups” in the election right now, with challenger Bob Gibbs coming up even in the race against incumbent Zach Space in recent polling.[1] Due to this, the Democratic party has begun to pour money into the Space campaign.[2]

            Jobs continue to dominate as the theme of the campaign. Cantonrep.com did an article recently on the approaches of Space and Gibbs saying that Space is much more focused on infrastructure development while Gibbs is taking an approach that emphasizes cuts in government spending.[3] Gibbs recently spoke in Zanesville about the excesses of big government.[4] He has also lashed out at Space for his votes in favor of President Obama’s cap and trade policies, something that Gibbs says kills jobs in rural Ohio.[5]

These policies follow models in research that expect for incumbents to have trouble during years where the economy and the president are being criticized.[6] By tying Space’s economic policies to that of an unpopular president, Gibbs has been able to exploit the weaknesses that make incumbents fall. This has led to an endorsement from the Intelligencer, which criticized Space for killing jobs in Ohio by supporting cap-and-trade.[7]

The other big story in the campaign has been to the backlash against Space’s “Thank You” ad. News sources have criticized the ad for being, among other things, simplistic in addressing issues and overly personal.[8] Interestingly, Space was the first to start flinging mud, even though Republicans have been shown in past elections to be quicker to resort to negative campaigning.[9] This is not terribly surprising, though, since Democrats have been shown to be quick to run negative campaigns when the polls are close.[10] The anti-Chinese themes do reflect larger national themes at this point. Space is one of almost thirty Democratic candidates to begin running an anti-Chinese television advertisement in the past two weeks.[11] This could end up drumming up anti-Chinese sentiment, which would go past the already-documented negative effects that negative advertising have on public notions of political efficacy.[12]

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[1] Dupree, Jaime. "The Toss Ups." Blogs about Atlanta News, Sports and More | Ajc.com, AccessAtlanta.com. Atlanta Journal-Constitution, 15 Oct. 2010. Web. 15 Oct. 2010. <http://blogs.ajc.com/jamie-dupree-washington-insider/2010/10/15/the-toss-ups/?cxntfid=blogs_jamie_dupree_washington_insider>.

[2] Eaton, Sabrina. "Democrats Pump an Extra $788,000 into Ohio Congressional Races | Cleveland.com." Cleveland OH Local News, Breaking News, Sports & Weather - Cleveland.com. Cleveland.com, 14 Oct. 2010. Web. 15 Oct. 2010. <http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2010/10/democrats_pump_another_788000.html>.

[3] "18th Congressional Candidates Focus on Jobs - Canton, OH - CantonRep.com."Cantonrep.com. 5 Oct. 2010. Web. 15 Oct. 2010. <http://www.cantonrep.com/news/x1423335487/18th-Congressional-candidates-focus-on-jobs>.

[4] Shannon, Brittany. "Bob Gibbs Talks Jobs in Zanesville | WHIZ News." Headlines | WHIZ News. Whiznews.com, 5 Oct. 2010. Web. 15 Oct. 2010. <http://www.whiznews.com/content/news/local/2010/10/05/bob-gibbs-talks-jobs-in-zanesville>.

[5] Lehmann, Evan. "In Ohio's Coal Country, Climate Policy Is a Tough Issue - NYTimes.com."The New York Times - Breaking News, World News & Multimedia. 14 Oct. 2010. Web. 15 Oct. 2010. <http://www.nytimes.com/cwire/2010/10/14/14climatewire-in-ohios-coal-country-climate-policy-is-a-to-30872.html>.

[6] Jacobson, Gary C. The Politics of Congressional Elections. 7th ed. New York: Pearson/Longman, 2009. Print.

[7] "Elect Gibbs To Congress." News, Sports, Jobs - The Intelligencer / Wheeling News-Register. 15 Oct. 2010. Web. 15 Oct. 2010. <http://www.theintelligencer.net/page/content.detail/id/547740/Elect-Gibbs-To-Congress.html?nav=511>.

[8] Isla, Jose De La. "Delaisla: Focus on the Issues, Not on Blame Games." Scrippsnews. Scripps Howard News Service, 13 Oct. 2010. Web. 15 Oct. 2010. <http://www.scrippsnews.com/node/57130>.

[9] Lau, Richard R., and Gerald M. Pomper. "Effects of Negative Campaigning on Turnout in U.S. Senate Elections, 1988-1998." Southern Political Science Association 63.3 (2001): 804-19. Print.

[10] Ibid.

[11] Chen, David W. "China Emerges as a Scapegoat in Campaign Ads." The New York Times. 9 Oct. 2010. Web. 15 Oct. 2010. <http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/10/us/politics/10outsource.html?_r=2&hp>.

[12] Ansolabehere, Stephen, Shanto Iyengar, Adam Simon, and Nicholas Valentino. "Does Attack Advertising Demobilize the Electorate?" The American Political Science Review 88.4 (1994): 829-38. Print.

Jobs and Social Networking

            This week in the campaign, both candidates rolled out attack ads that attempted to paint their opponent as job killers. Zach Space’s “Thank You” ad reinforces his message that Bob Gibbs is outsourcing jobs by saying that China loves Gibbs.[1] He has recently been trying to boost his perception as a job creator by making a public statement about a solar energy field to be built in southeast Ohio.[2] Gibbs has countered with his “New Leadership ad, accusing Space of “killing” jobs by supporting cap and trade.[3] This back and forth has made it clear that job creation and retention is the central issue of this campaign. With the bad national landscape for Democrats this election year, Gibbs could make up a lot of ground if he can convince voters that Space is just another Democrat. Something is going to have to break through, though, for this challenger to overtake the incumbent.

            Part of Gibbs’ approach has been reaching out through internet media, a common tactic for challengers.[4] Gibbs has links to his twitter, facebook group, and linkedin profiles readily available on his main webpage.[5] This is in contrast to Space’s website, which has links to social networking media near the bottom of the page.[6] Gibbs also has a more prominent facebook group, with over 1,300 group members, about four hundred more than Space’s facebook page.[7] [8] This follows the regular patterns of strategy as challengers more commonly use the more risky venue of facebook groups as an opportunity to get the word out to young voters.[9] Whether this style of advertising will pay off for Gibbs is still yet to be seen.

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[1] Riskind, Jonathan. "Campaign Ad Watch: Rep. Zack Space, 'Thank You' | The Columbus Dispatch." Central Ohio News, Sports, Arts & Classifieds | The Columbus Dispatch. 5 Oct. 2010. Web. 08 Oct. 2010. <http://www.dispatch.com/live/content/local_news/stories/2010/10/05/ad-watch-space-thank-you.html?sid=101>.

[2] "Solar Energy Field to Be Built in Southeastern Ohio, Space Says." Coshoctontribune.com. Coshocton Tribune, 4 Oct. 2010. Web. 8 Oct. 2010. <http://www.coshoctontribune.com/article/20101004/UPDATES01/101004009/1002/NEWS01>.

[3] Torry, Jack. "Campaign Ad Watch: Bob Gibbs, 'New Leadership' | The Columbus Dispatch."Central Ohio News, Sports, Arts & Classifieds | The Columbus Dispatch. 5 Oct. 2010. Web. 08 Oct. 2010. <http://www.dispatch.com/live/content/local_news/stories/2010/10/05/ad-watch-gibbs-new-leadership.html?sid=101>.

[4] Williams, Christine B., and Girish J. Gulati. "Social Networks as Viral Campaigns: Facebook and the 2006 Midterm Elections." American Political Science Association (2007). Print.

[5] Bob Gibbs for Congress - Home. Web. 08 Oct. 2010. <http://www.bobgibbsforcongress.com/>.

[6] Congressman Zack Space : Home. Web. 08 Oct. 2010. <http://space.house.gov/>.

[7] "Bob Gibbs for Congress | Facebook." Welcome to Facebook. Web. 08 Oct. 2010. <http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=130462750307274>.

[8] "Congressman Zack Space | Facebook." Welcome to Facebook. Web. 08 Oct. 2010. <http://www.facebook.com/RepZackSpace>.

[9] Williams and Girish, “Social Networks.”

Endorsements and Free Trade Agreements Dominate Headlines

            News this week in the campaign for Ohio’s 18^th centers around some surprising moves by interest groups. First, incumbent Democrat Zach Space picked up the all-important NRA endorsement last Friday.[1] Space was able to edge out Gibbs, a “life-member” of the NRA, with his experience as a co-author of the “Reform and Firearms Modernization Act.” In a conservative district such as the 18^th, this endorsement means a lot for Space to pick up otherwise moderate issue voters.

            On the other side, Space’s opposition to the health care reform bill is beginning to come back to haunt him. The coalition of the Communication Workers of America, United Auto Workers Union, and the United Food and Commercial Workers have begun a campaign called “Skip-a-Space,” aimed as a retaliation towards Space for his opposition to the bill.[2] This move could keep some of Space’s more liberal voters home as research has found that negative endorsements by labor unions can alienate liberals.[3]

            Space is beginning to establish a lead on some important issues. Last Wednesday, he proposed a national referendum on free trade agreements.[4] While the act seems impractical and smacks of political posturing, this follows a common strategy of using a record to attack the weaknesses of the opponent.[5] Space is trying to paint Gibbs as a tool of big business and part of the problem of jobs leaking out of Ohio.

            Gibbs’ response has been to paint Space as a tool of a stimulus-crazed Democratic House that isn’t getting anything done. In a questionably factual ad, the Americans for Job Security have placed Space right next to Nancy Pelosi in pictures, trying to call into question his conservative credentials.[6] Whether these allegations will stick will come out in the next couple of weeks.

            Finally, Space has been campaigning in Los Angeles attempting to raise money. There, he told voters that “It could be my seat that makes the difference in the house, this is why I am asking for everybody’s support.”[7] Here, Space is capitalizing on one of the strongest methods of campaigning: making voters feel that their vote will have an effect in the grand scheme.[8]

            As certain issues begin to become the major issues in the campaign, we will see which ones begin to take hold in the hearts of voters.

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[1] Riskind, Jonathan. "NRA Endorses Space over GOP Challenger Gibbs." Ohio Political News & Opinion | Columbus Dispatch Politics. Columbus Dispatch, 26 Sept. 2010. Web. 01 Oct. 2010. <http://www.dispatchpolitics.com/live/content/local_news/stories/2010/09/26/copy/dc2.html?adsec=politics&sid=101>.

[2] Isenstadt, Alex. "Labor Continues to Hammer Space - Alex Isenstadt - POLITICO.com."Politics, Political News - POLITICO.com. 28 Sept. 2010. Web. 01 Oct. 2010. <http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0910/42829.html>.

[3] Mcdermott, M. L. "Not for Members Only: Group Endorsements as Electoral Information Cues."Political Research Quarterly 59.2 (2006): 249-57. Print.

[4] Alaimo, Jessica. "Space Wants National Referendum on Trade Deals."Http://www.chillicothegazette.com/. Chillicothe Gazette, 30 Sept. 2010. Web. 1 Oct. 2010. <http://www.chillicothegazette.com/article/20100930/NEWS01/9300309>.

[5] Sellers, Patrick J. "Strategy and Background in Congressional Campaigns." American Political Science Review 92.1 (1998): 159-71. Http://www.jstor.org. Web. <http://www.jstor.org/stable/2585935>.

[6] Subject, By. "PolitiFact | Americans for Job Security Targets Zack Space, Other Dems on Their Agenda." PolitiFact | Sorting out the Truth in Politics. 23 Sept. 2010. Web. 01 Oct. 2010. <http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2010/sep/27/americans-job-security/americans-job-security-targets-zach-space-other-de/>.

[7] Papapostolou, Anastasios. "Congressman Space Explains Importance of His Seat." Congressman Space Explains Importance of His Seat. Greek USA Reporter, 28 Sept. 2010. Web. 1 Oct. 2010. <http://usa.greekreporter.com/2010/09/28/zack-space-visited-california-emphasizing-the-importance-of-his-seat-in-congress/>.

[8] Gerber, Alan S., and Donald P. Green. "The Effects of Canvassing, Telephone Calls, and Direct Mail on Voter Turnout: A Field Experiment." American Political Science Review 94.3 (2000): 653-63. Print.